AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KLKN 242339
 AFDLKN
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
 339 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
 SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE
 ON RIDGING AT 500MB INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING...WILL
 BE THE WARMEST DAY OF OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50
 AND 55. THE EDGE MIGHT BE TAKEN OFF WARMING NORTHWEST ON
 THURSDAY...AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF.
 THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE TROF MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...WITH
 700MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8C NORTH AND -5C CENTRAL BY 00Z SATURDAY.
 PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREBY MAKING
 PRECIP TYPE SNOW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE
 AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PRECIP HAS SLOWED UP IN THE LATEST MODEL
 RUNS...WITH LOWER QPF...SO CLOUDS MAY BE MORE THE CHARACTER OF THE
 DAY FRIDAY THAN PRECIP...EXCEPT IN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO
 COUNTY...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
 AFTERNOON. REA
 
 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MASS FIELDS
 OF THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN
 GENERAL...BOTH MODELS DEPICT A SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT
 BASIN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS FASTER AND THE ECMWF IS
 DEEPER. THE ECMWF SPINS UP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
 SOUTHWEST. WHAT CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE TWO MODELS IS THAT THIS
 WEEKEND...EXPECT A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
 TO PORTIONS OF WHITE PINE AND ELKO COUNTIES. THIS JACKPOT CLIPPER
 WILL ESPECIALLY IMPACT THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. AS THIS
 SYSTEM EXITS THE LKN CWA ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ITS WAY
 BACK INTO THE SILVER STATE RESULTING IN A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
 
 .AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE 
 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. VFR 
 CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES.  
 &&
 
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 90/97/97
 
 
 

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