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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
HOME > Back to products page | Weather Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KVEF 052202
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PST FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNNY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG 140W WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHT
CHANGE REMAINS MINIMAL ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CUTTING OFF JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...WITH MODELS INDICATING ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY THIN LAYER. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY INDICATED
OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MAINTAINING A BAGGY POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES COME THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND IN THE DAY 6-8 TIME FRAME. GFS AND DGEX DEPICT AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM MEXICO WITH A REMNANT
LOW OFFSHORE...LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
PRECIPITATION UNLIKELY BUT A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME INTERMITTENT MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MEXICO
RIDGE LEANING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD INTRODUCE A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT IT IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF...THERE
IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE BE APPROACHING
THE GULF COAST STATES BY THAT TIME AS WELL...INTRODUCING YET ANOTHER
COMPLICATION TO THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...FOR NOW DECIDED TO JUST
PLAY A LARGELY CLIMO FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO AIR
TRAFFIC FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO AIR TRAFFIC FLOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&




KENNEDY/RUNK

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS








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