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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KVEF 140350
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
750 PM PST MON FEB 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAIN AND SNOW.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAD SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS LESS
THAN 40 MPH IN ALL THE POPULATED AREAS. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING...WIND ADVISORY...AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRESUMED SNOW
BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES LOOK REASONABLE...SO LEFT THEM INTACT AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...MCCARRAN...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 8 AND 14Z THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA...WITH CIGS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO 5-6KFT
AGL. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH THE LOW TO
THE EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN. THE NEXT ROUND
OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING...WHILE OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO SEVERE
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE FROM MTN WAVES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. CIGS
WILL BE BLO 2 KFT IN -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
ACRS ERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTY...WELL DEVELOPED BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS DOWN TO 5 KFT. HIR TRRN
OBSCURED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 PM PST MON FEB 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER
MUCH OF INYO COUNTY...BUT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OVER LINCOLN AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES IN THE FAVORED UPPER DIFFLUENT
AREA. DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT...BUT SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO ENHANCE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE DRY SLOT OVER
CLARK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
PUSH EAST AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY WORK EAST INTO
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS SHOWN TO ENHANCE
OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND DECENT RAINFALL/HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. ONE RAWS SITE DID REPORT A GUST OF 74
MPH EARLIER AND THERE WAS A REPORT OF A POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN IN
YERMO. DID UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY TO A WARNING AS THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP RAPIDLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FEET BY
MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL BE OVER
BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...BUT SHOWERS UNDER THE LOW
ITSELF AND SOME WRAP AROUND BEHIND THE LOW MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES TO THE FOOTHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT SNOW
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES TO THOSE PRODUCTS
NEEDED. MUCH COLDER DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND -10C WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALL DAY.

ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR ALONG WITH SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LOW SNOW
LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO WINTER PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY
ON IN THE EXTENDED THEN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST FOR THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. ON FRIDAY...MODEL SHOW RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE GREAT BASIN UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY AS DIFFERENCES START BECOMING APPARENT WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ECMWF THE
WEAKEST AND FASTEST MOVING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE REMAINDER OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SLOWER AND DEPICT A
DEEPER TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BOTTOM LINE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS DONE TO EXISTING GRIDS KEEPING A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DRY IN THE VALLEYS.
LETS HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WITH TONIGHTS RUNS.

.AVIATION...MCCARRAN...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CLARK COUNTY AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER
AND INTO MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 5KFT AS
SHOWERS PASS OVER LOCAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS UPPER
LOW PASS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO SEVERE
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE FROM MTN WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WELL. THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE RETURN EARLY TUESDAY THIS TIME COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW EXITING EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. CIGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING...WHILE OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO SEVERE
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE FROM MTN WAVES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. CIGS
WILL BE BLO 2 KFT IN -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
IN THE LOWER DESERTS...CIGS DOWN TO 5 KFT IN -SHRA. HIR TRRN
OBSCURED.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NVZ018-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NVZ014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR NVZ015.
AZ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ001.
CA...NONE.
&&




MORGAN/KENNEDY/GORELOW/PIERCE

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