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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 140410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
EACH SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS SE AZ DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. ALSO...CLOUD TOPS
WERE COOLING ACROSS FAR SWRN AZ SINCE 14/01Z. HOWEVER...PRECIP
ECHOES WERE WELL NW OF THIS FORECAST AREA ACROSS FAR NWRN AZ AND SRN
NEVADA. UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NV AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE EWD INTO NWRN AZ EARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM TO THEN MOVE
EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUE EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 14/00Z NAM HAS LOWERED THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP MARKEDLY VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. NAM DEPICTED THE ONSET OF
PRECIP TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NAM PROGGED LIQUID AMOUNTS OF JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO OCCUR TUE FROM THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS NEWD
TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

AT ANY RATE...GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS AND ANALYSES OF THE 14/00Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS...STILL BELIEVE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS
MOST SECTIONS TUE. WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRIDDED DATA SKY FIELDS WERE
UPDATED TO DEPICT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST SECTIONS THE REST OF
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 4-8K FT AGL THRU TUESDAY EVENING
OR 15/06Z. ISOLD -SHRA DEVELOPING NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY
DAYBREAK. SCT-NUMEROUS -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN TUE. PRECIP
ENDING FROM W-E TUE EVENING. SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THRU 16Z TUE. THEREAFTER...SURFACE WIND SWLY/WLY 10-25
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS 17Z-23Z TUE. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 15/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS GRAHAM/GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE
NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOST AREAS...
ALTHOUGH LIGHT. WIND AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. WIND
SPEEDS MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST ACROSS PARTS
OF COCHISE COUNTY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF COCHISE COUNTY...BUT PROJECTED SPEEDS ON THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THUS...WILL NOT
POST ONE AT THIS TIME. MODELS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM THAT WAS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURSDAY. NOT SURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POP VALUES GOING FOR
NOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.




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