National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KTWC 072050 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 150 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SONORA CHIHUAHUA BORDER NEAR THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT US A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION WAS HEADED NORTHWEST TOWARD AZ...AND A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20S...AND THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WILL KEEP AZ DRY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS NEAR CLOUD BUILDUPS. AFTER THE LOW EXITS...EXPECT SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MILD TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO SE AZ TUESDAY. MORE LIKELY WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOARD SE WINDS RATHER THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING. IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS POINT TO AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER WESTERN US DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO AFFECT SE ARIZONA BUT AN INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOME COOLING ALSO A GOOD BET AS HEIGHTS DECREASE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WHITES FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIP...KD && .AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR INTO SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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