AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 072050
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 150 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS 
 WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO 
 PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL 
 PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SONORA 
 CHIHUAHUA BORDER NEAR THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT US A VEIL OF 
 HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION WAS HEADED NORTHWEST TOWARD 
 AZ...AND A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL 
 BORDER...GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20S...AND 
 THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WILL KEEP AZ DRY THIS 
 EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS NEAR CLOUD 
 BUILDUPS.
 
 AFTER THE LOW EXITS...EXPECT SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MILD TEMPS 
 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO SE 
 AZ TUESDAY.  MORE LIKELY WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME UPTICK IN LOW 
 LEVEL MOISTURE ABOARD SE WINDS RATHER THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
 
 IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS POINT TO AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER 
 WESTERN US DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
 SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO AFFECT SE ARIZONA BUT AN INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW 
 AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOME 
 COOLING ALSO A GOOD BET AS HEIGHTS DECREASE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE 
 POPS IN THE WHITES FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIP...KD
 
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 .AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 
 15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR INTO 
 SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE 
 WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 
 MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
 OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS 
 DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY 
 TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
 
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 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
 

 
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