AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KSGX 250506
 AFDSGX
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
 930 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING 
 CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS 
 THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. COOLER WITH MORE 
 CLOUDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
 THROUGH. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... 
 ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
 
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE 
 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD NE WINDS TO ABOUT 15 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND 
 NW WINDS ALOFT. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -10 MB SAN-TPH AND 
 THERE WERE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND 
 PASSES. 
 
 THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WILL 
 GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES 
 WITH A LITTLE WARMING IN MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST DAY IN MOST AREAS 
 WILL BE THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL 
 AVERAGES INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAINLY 
 BE GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH LITTLE UPPER OR THERMAL SUPPORT. MOST WINDS 
 WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH AT 
 TIMES THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. HOWEVER...THERE 
 COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN 
 THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE WARM...DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN 
 ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD. COOL AT NIGHT IN AREAS PROTECTED FROM 
 THE WINDS. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING A RETURN OF 
 SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FRIDAY. COOLER 
 FRIDAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
 
 &&
 
 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...EXTENDED PROGS REMAIN SOMEWHAT 
 INCONSISTENT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING SOME 
 CLOUDS AND MORE COOLING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBLE OF 
 LIGHT PRECIP BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO WILL JUST 
 INDICATE LOW LEVEL POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEEP MARINE 
 LAYER WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL 
 DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY...WEAKENING MONDAY AND 
 TUESDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATES STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS SUNDAY BUT THE 
 GFS IS WEAKER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A LITTLE WARMING W OF 
 THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MORE WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 250300Z...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WED. 
 ONLY CONCERN IS LOCAL STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH AND BELOW SOME 
 MOUNTAIN PASSES AND CANYONS A TIMES. LOCAL NE WINDS 15-30 KT WITH 
 HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE AREAS OF LLWS...MAINLY BELOW THE CAJON 
 PASS...AND OVER THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING KSNA.
 
 &&
 
 .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 
 RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE SANTA ANA 
 MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SEE LAXRFWSGX. 
 
 &&
 
 

 
 PUBLIC...ATKIN
 AVIATION...JAD
 
 
 
 
 

Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Tucson Weather Forecast Office
520 North Park Ave, Suite 304
Tucson, AZ 85719

Tel: (520) 670-6526