AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KLOX 300454
 AFDLOX
 
 SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 1000 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2008
 
 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...THE MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 900 FT DEEP 
 AT LAX THIS EVENING. THERE WERE PLENTY OF HI CLOUDS OVER THE 
 DISTRICT THIS EVENING WHICH WAS OBSCURING THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE FOG 
 PRODUCT...SO THE EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT IS 
 DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...ALTHO THRU BREAKS IN THE HI CLOUD COVER IT 
 APPEARS THE LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE E SBA CHANNEL UP TO 
 PORTIONS OF THE SBA S COAST BUT REMAINED OFF THE VTU AND L.A. 
 COASTAL AREAS. OVERNIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE SOCAL 
 BIGHT BUT SOME ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SO AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS 
 SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE VTU AND L.A. COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. 
 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL 
 AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY 
 SKIES WITH THE HI CLOUDS LINGERING CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT 
 OVER THE REGION.
 
 AN UPPER HI OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD 
 INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THRU SAT. A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL 
 MOVE INTO NRN AND CENTRAL CA BY LATE SAT...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER 
 MUCH OF THE STATE FOR SUN. THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION 
 ON MON. IN ADDITION...AN INVERTED UPPER TROF SHOULD MOVE JUST TO THE 
 S OR SE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
 DISTRICT SHOULD BE GENERALLY VARIABLE FOR SAT AS THE REGION WILL BE 
 UNDER A COL AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH TO THE E AND THE UPPER TROF 
 APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NW 
 FOR SUN THRU MON. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION 
 ON SAT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL 
 REMAIN TO THE S AND E OF THE DISTRICT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
 THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE L.A. MOUNTAINS... 
 AND ANTELOPE VALLEY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND 
 EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SWRN CA THRU 
 MON. WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUN...IT LOOKS 
 LIKE W TO NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST 
 AND ANTELOPE VALLEY SUN AFTERNOON...AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ALONG THE 
 CENTRAL COAST FOR MON AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LINGER THRU 
 SUN MORNING AS WELL...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW 
 CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOME OF THE 
 VALLEYS...THEN MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED ON 
 THE CENTRAL COAST SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER 
 DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE COAST S OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH LOW 
 CLOUDS LIKELY UP TO THE COASTAL SLOPES MON MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE 
 REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
 NORMAL FOR SAT...THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND 
 MON.  
 
 ...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
 
 .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE 
 BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 
 SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN 
 GOOD AGREEMENT. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...30/0445Z...HI CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS 
 WILL AFFECT KSBP AND KSMX OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. LOW TO 
 MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL TAF SITES 
 S OF POINT CONCEPTION OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS 
 SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE COAST BY 18Z OR SO SAT. OTHERWISE VFR 
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
 THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA AROUND KPMD AND KWJF SAT AFTERNOON.
 
 FOR KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS 
 WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR 
 THRU SAT. NO WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT.
 
 FOR KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 
 SAT...ALTHO SOME MVFR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT 
 AND EARLY SAT. NO WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THRU SAT.
 
 &&
 
 .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
 
 &&
 
 

 
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