AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KLOX 140417
 AFDLOX
 
 SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 800 PM PST MON FEB 13 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 
 A VERY COLD LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE 
 PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT BREAK ON TUESDAY 
 BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION 
 WITH BREEZY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A HIGH WILL ADVANCE 
 ON THE REGION THURSDAY AND ALONG WITH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LAUNCH 
 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. EARLY 
 NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW MAY WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE REGION.
 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...BEEN A BUSY SHIFT DUE TO THE GUSTY 
 WINDS AND SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION 
 AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. 
 CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF 
 SLO COUNTY MOVING SOUTH TOWARD POINT CONCEPTION. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING 
 OUT OF VANDENBERG AFB INDICATED A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE AT THE LOWER 
 LEVELS WITH A PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 
 A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT 
 AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST 
 OF POINT CONCEPTION. 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -28 TO -30 CELSIUS 
 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUCH AS 
 LIFTED INDEX AND K INDEX ARE MARGINALLY STABLE...THE COMBINATION OF 
 THESE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME DECENT PVA TIMED WELL WITH THE 
 ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD KICK OFF SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS. 
 RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MEAGER...HOWEVER IF A 
 THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY 
 DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS 
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR TODAY WERE 
 ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION RECORDING 
 LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS LA/VTU 
 COUNTIES. MANY AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP. 
 
 IN REGARDS TO SNOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES REPORTED SO FAR 
 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE TEJON PASS NEAR THE I-5 CORRIDOR...BUT 
 BY THE LOOKS OF RADAR...MORE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
 I-5 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE 
 TO BANK UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF LA AND VTU COUNTIES AS 
 WELL BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
 
 IN REGARDS TO WINDS...
 WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS 
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LA/VTU COUNTY COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP 
 TO 45 MPH AT LAX AS WELL AS OXNARD AND CAMARILLO AIRPORTS THIS 
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL 
 VENTURA COUNTY VALLEY INCLUDING THOUSAND OAKS...WESTLAKE VILLAGE AND 
 NEWBURY PARK AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS WILL 
 CONTINUE ACROSS THE LA/VTU AND SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS 
 WELL. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT STILL GUSTY NORTHERLY 
 WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND 
 PRONE SOUTH COAST. WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO 
 DIMINISH SOME AND LOOK CLOSELY TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORIES OR POSSIBLY 
 CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. 
 
 BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LVL LOW WILL PUSH INTO ARIZONA GIVING OUR 
 REGION A NICE BUT SHORT LIVED BREAK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL 
 WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE.
 
 PREVIOUS SHIFT SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED WED THROUGH MONDAY WELL.
 
 ...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
 
 THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BARREL DOWN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. 
 THERE UNFORTUNATELY IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS 
 SYSTEM...AS THE LOW HAS YET TO PEEL OFF THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY 
 IMPACTING ALASKA. THE OVERALL TREND HOWEVER IS TOWARD A DRIER MORE 
 INSIDE TRACKING SOLUTION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT TO WHAT HAS BEEN 
 GOING ON THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. IN FACT..THE CURRENT PROJECTED 
 TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS STILL A 
 DECENT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW...TRENDED THE POPS DOWN A SMIDGE 
 TO REFLECT THE INCREASING CHANCE OF A MORE OVER-LAND TRACK. EVEN IF 
 PRECIP HAPPENS...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS STARVED FOR MOISTURE...AND 
 AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
 
 ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH 
 PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SURFACE OF THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND THE 
 SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. AT 
 THIS POINT...WIND ADVISORIES LOOK POSSIBLE OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES. THE 
 OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES 
 SPIKE TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
 
 .LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO CONTINUE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
 WITH BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW...FOR A PLEASANT KICK-OFF TO THE HOLIDAY 
 WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ITS TARGETS ON CALIFORNIA 
 ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK SET TO COOL...OTHER 
 DETAILS OF THE FORECAST ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED. THERE HAS BEEN 
 VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS 
 THING...AND THE FULL PEANUT BUTTER SPREAD OF THE LATEST GFS 
 ENSEMBLES ONLY SUPPORTS THAT UNCERTAINTY. AS A RESULT...WILL RIDE 
 CLIMO POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE COMES ALONG.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...13/2350Z.
 GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 
 SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 
 KPRB...KSMX...KSBP...KWJF...AND KPMD. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH 
 THE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBA AFTER SUNDOWN. EXCEPT FOR 
 OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO 
 TUESDAY. KPRB MAY SEE SOME BR LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER. OUTSIDE CHANCE 
 OF -TSRA AT KPRB...KWJF...KPMD THROUGH 06Z. 
 
 KLAX...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 04Z...VFR 
 SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z...THEN 
 GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 08Z. MODERATE LLWS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE 
 WINDS.
 
 KBUR...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z...VFR 
 SHOULD PREVAIL. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
 THROUGH 03Z...THEN SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE. WEAK LLWS MAY ALSO 
 ACCOMPANY THE WINDS.
 
 &&
 
 .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
 GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
 HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
 
 &&
 
 

 
 PUBLIC...KAPLAN/KITTELL
 AVIATION...KITTELL
 SYNOPSIS...SETO
 
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