AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 140348
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 900 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL 
 INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT 
 STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 
 AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER 
 LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY 
 WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA 
 DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS...WILL HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN 
 ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN 
 SNOW IS ON THE WAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE 
 WITH NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.  
 
 CONTINUOUS SNOW HAS MOVED OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND 
 WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW 
 LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 4000 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 
 ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE  ABOVE 5000-5500 FEET FOR MOST 
 AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS STORM MOVES 
 ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE LOW 
 PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY EVENING WITH 
 DECREASING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS 
 COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
 
 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER 
 LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY 
 NIGHT THEN DOWN THE BAJA AND INTO MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 
 THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST 
 AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
 FOR ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 
 
 FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP 
 TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. 
 
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 .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 1-3 KFT WILL BE 
 COMMON FROM KFLG NORTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 
 BASES ABOVE 5 KFT EAST OF KFLG...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DVLP 
 NW OF KFLG WITH WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...THEN SPREADING 
 SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM BY AROUND 09Z...SHIFTING 
 INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES BY AROUND 16Z. AFTER 20Z...SOME 
 IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST AZ WITH SCT SHOWER 
 ACTIVITY LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...THEN SHOWERS DECREASING 
 BTWN 00-03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 5000 FEET ZONES 4-5-6 UNTIL 500 PM 
 TUESDAY AND ZONES 8-11-15-16-39 FROM 1100 PM TONIGHT TO 500 PM 
 TUESDAY.
 
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 PUBLIC.....MCCOLLUM/MAS
 AVIATION...TC/DJO
 
 
 FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
 WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
 
 
 
 

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