National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 140348 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS...WILL HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS ON THE WAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. CONTINUOUS SNOW HAS MOVED OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 4000 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 5000-5500 FEET FOR MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY EVENING WITH DECREASING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DOWN THE BAJA AND INTO MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 1-3 KFT WILL BE COMMON FROM KFLG NORTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 5 KFT EAST OF KFLG...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DVLP NW OF KFLG WITH WDSPRD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM BY AROUND 09Z...SHIFTING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES BY AROUND 16Z. AFTER 20Z...SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN NORTHWEST AZ WITH SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...THEN SHOWERS DECREASING BTWN 00-03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 5000 FEET ZONES 4-5-6 UNTIL 500 PM TUESDAY AND ZONES 8-11-15-16-39 FROM 1100 PM TONIGHT TO 500 PM TUESDAY. &&
PUBLIC.....MCCOLLUM/MAS AVIATION...TC/DJO FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
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