AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 250346
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 845 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND 
 COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS...THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE 
 REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY 
 CONDITIONS.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...
 THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED. 
 FAIR WEATHER DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY. 
 
 A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY. 
 AS MENTIONED BELOW...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE 
 18Z GFS MUCH DRIER WHILE TODAYS 12Z EC WANTS TO BRING SOME MOISTURE 
 NORTHWARD THROUGH TUCSON AND THEN WRAP IT INTO THE LOW SATURDAY 
 EVENING. TONIGHTS 00Z ETA IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE 
 EC SOLUTION. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD W/ 
 RESPECT TO THIS WEEKENDS WX SO STAY TUNED.
 
 PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS 
 ARIZONA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
 TERRAIN. AN AREA OF HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER NEVADA WILL DRIFT OVER 
 ARIZONA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE DEWPOINT IS UP TO 13 DEGREES LOWER THAN 
 IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES 
 TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SAME THAT THEY WERE THIS MORNING FOR 
 MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES MAY KEEP A 
 FEW SPOTS WARMER. 
 
 UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES 
 AND A SLOW DAYTIME WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
 
 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC 
 NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
 SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 
 WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH INCREASING 
 SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO 
 SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER DAYTIME 
 TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE GFS AND EC 
 ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND 
 HAVE LEFT POPS LOW FOR NOW...LESS THAN 20 PCT. THE BEST CHANCES OF 
 PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE LITTLE COLORADO 
 RIVERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 
 THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS NORTH 
 OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 
 
 HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON 
 MONDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY. 
 
 MAS
 
 
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 .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY 
 CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED 
 FOR AMENDMENTS
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
 
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 PUBLIC.................DL
 AVIATION...............DL
 
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