AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 132145
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
 242 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THIS WEEK AS A COUPLE OF UPPER 
 LOWS TRACK ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. THE FIRST UPPER LOW WILL MOVE 
 ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE 
 AREA ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SECOND LOW 
 WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY 
 NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SPREADING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MOSTLY ALONG 
 THE NEW MEXICO AND MEXICO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
 ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE COOLER 
 THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE UPPER LOWS PASSING THROUGH.
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 AN ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD IN STORE AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MOVES PACIFIC 
 SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN DROPS THEM DOWN IN OUR GENERAL 
 VICINITY. FIRST UPPER LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL DROP TO 
 CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 
 WEDNESDAY MORNING. SYSTEM PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE 
 MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH 
 FAR WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
 JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 
 7000 FT. UPPER FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING BUT 
 WEAK TO MODERATE TROUGHING OVER THE NM EASTERN PLAINS WILL STILL 
 DEVELOP AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE GRADIENT...ALONG WITH STRONG MID 
 LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND BLOWING 
 DUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST FROM ABOUT EL PASO WEST 
 SO WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
 TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT 
 SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE PAC 
 NORTHWEST WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH 
 SHOWING LOW OVER THE MEXICAN SONORAN DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
 OVER THE BIG BEND REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE 
 POPS IN FOR ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. 
 BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS 
 AND MOSTLY LIMIT POPS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL LET NEXT PACKAGE 
 LOOK AT MODELS AND TRIM BACK POPS IN NECESSARY. SNOW LEVELS AGAIN 
 LOOK RELATIVELY HIGH...DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FT...THOUGH SOME 
 MIXED RAIN/SNOW COULD FALL AS LOW 5000 FT FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE 
 END OF THE EVENT. AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH SYSTEM SO 
 PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
 
 WEEKEND AND BEYOND...SEVERAL MORE UPPER LOW SWEEP ACROSS...BUT MUCH 
 FURTHER NORTH. ONE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY 
 BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR CWA. A FOLLOW UP LOW SWEEPS ACROSS 
 SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN TOO FAR NORTH FOR 
 PRECIP...BUT LAGGING TROUGH FROM THE LOW COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG 
 WINDS FOR THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z.
 VFR CONDS THRU PD. WEST WINDS OF 15G25KT WILL DECREASE TO 5-10KT BY 
 02Z EXCEPT AT KELP WHERE OCCASIONAL 26015G25KT POSSIBLE THRU 08Z. 
 SCT-BKN100 BKN200 DECK OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN AFT 03Z. WINDS 
 WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFT 16Z AND BY 20Z MOST TERMINALS WILL 
 LIKELY SEE 26020-30G40KT WITH LCL 1-3SM BLDU AT KDMN...KLRU AND 
 KELP. SCT 3SM -SHRASN BKN025 POSSIBLE OVER GILA AFT 18Z...ELSEWHERE 
 SCT-BKN060-080 BKN150. 
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
 THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING 
 WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA 
 TUESDAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE 
 IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20 
 PERCENT. AFTER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EARLY 
 THURSDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING INTO BAJA AND CROSSING 
 NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
 TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER 
 SOUTHERN ZONES. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURNING FOR 
 THE WEEKEND.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 EL PASO                 41  65  38  57  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SIERRA BLANCA TX        39  63  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LAS CRUCES              36  64  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 ALAMOGORDO              39  64  32  55  32 /   0  10  10  10   0 
 CLOUDCROFT              26  44  20  38  19 /   0  10  20  10   0 
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   33  61  32  54  31 /   0  10  10   0   0 
 SILVER CITY             33  50  31  45  30 /   0  10  10   0   0 
 DEMING                  33  62  30  54  27 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LORDSBURG               34  61  31  52  30 /   0  10   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ022-023-
      030>032.
 
 TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR TXZ055.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 HEFNER/GRZYWACZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

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