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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 202053
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING KEPT SATURDAY`S TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
THIS NEW AIRMASS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS HAS EXITED THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS SUNDAY. THE RESULTING
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING DRY AND MILD THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THE REGION SITS UNDER THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIND...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND. ALOFT DEEP NORTHERLY
FLOW IS IMPORTING DRIER AIR AS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD EROSION IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE A NORTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING
COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THAT HIGHLIGHTS OUR PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE. THE FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP OR
EXTENDED...BUT SENSITIVE SPRING BLOOMS AND PETS MAY BE ADVERSELY
AFFECTED. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO GET THE WORD
OUT TO THE PUBLIC. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES DUE TO DRYING AND LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS TWO
UPPER LOWS TRACK EAST IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF A
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE SOUTHERN-BRANCH LOW IS COMPACT AND
TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CWFA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WHILE THE
LARGER NORTHERN-BRANCH LOW TRACKS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS.
CURRENT GFS SHOWS THE TWO SYSTEMS PHASING AS THEY APPROACH THE
REGION. THIS GIVES THE AREA A RAPID-FIRE DOUBLE SHOT AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS FOLLOW EACH OTHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EFFECTS DON`T APPEAR TOO
EXTREME. WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY TUE-THU WITH
LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGED TO PUSH IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
SECOND LOW...BUT COOLING LOOKS ONLY MODERATE AND LIMITED TO ONE
DAY AT BEST. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A 24 HR PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW...A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS WORTHY OF STATEMENTS/WATCHES/
ADVISORIES.

BEHIND THE EXIT OF THE MIDWEEK STORMS WE SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY
ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING WINDS BACK
TO WEST AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. RESULTS WILL BE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. THIS WILL ALSO MARK A DRY
PERIOD AS THE STORM TRACK IS SHOVED NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
JUST FEW-SCT HIGH-BASED CU FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIRMASS BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG RAD COOLING WITH
FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN ALL ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE
STRONG OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP
MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
MEANING LOW/MID 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB WILL
RESULT IN LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS AND LOW VENT RATES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY...IMPROVING VENTILATION RATES.

&&

25-HARDIMAN


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 30 63 35 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 26 61 33 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 28 62 31 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 60 30 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 14 40 18 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 25 61 31 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 21 56 26 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 62 30 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 27 62 32 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&




14-BIRD




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