National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KABQ 140519 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1019 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012 .UPDATE... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE JUST BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. A LOCALLY HEAVY BAND OF RAIN/SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE LOCAL 7.5KM WRF AND 5KM NCEP WRF-ARW THEN SHOW STRONG MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN MTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 21Z-06Z THEREFORE HAVE ADDED JEMEZ MTS TO WATCH. TWEAKED SNOW AMOUNTS UP IN THAT AREA AND ALSO RAISED AMOUNTS TO JUST BLW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES OF THE SANGRES. LOTS OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REGION SURROUNDING THE CURRENT WATCH. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012... RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE FOUND. GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF THAN THE 12Z NAM. HAVE AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN AREAS AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN BAND WOULD FORM LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY PROJECTED BY THE MODELS WITH THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD BE IMPRESSIVE BUT NOT LAST VERY LONG DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW/RAIN/SLEET WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH SOME LIGHTNING SO HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH DURING THE EVENING BUT RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF THAN THE GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW. THERMAL ATTRIBUTES TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRICKY...PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT BUT INITIALLY NOT AS MUCH AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE INITIAL QPF MAY VERY WELL FALL AS SNOW BUT NOT ACCUMULATE AS MUCH DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACE DUE TO WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE THE ANTECEDENT SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND KEEPING GROUND TEMPS A BIT COOLER. EITHER WAY...SOME OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS SHOULD LINE UP WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. STORM DURATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO BY THE GFS...IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO AFTER ADDING ALL OF THAT UP DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR A HANDFUL OF ZONES. THE WATCH WILL RUN FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 503...510...504 AND 506. CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH SNOW PROJECTED IN ZONE 506...4 INCHES...BUT EXPECT THE INITIAL SNOW BAND TO BE WET THEN MUCH COOLER AIR CREATING FREEZING ISSUES BEHIND THE FROPA. THUS...THE AREA BETWEEN GALLUP AND GRANTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE COULD CREATE ROUGH TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MANY ZONES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH ARE PROJECTED TO REACH SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW UPCOMING SHIFTS ONE LAST LOOK AT THAT. WANTED TO GO WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY AREAS FOR WARNING AMOUNTS AND/OR EFFECTS. LOOK FOR THAT STATEMENT BY 3 PM. DID CUT BACK A LITTLE ON POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS NAM AND GFS NOT TOO BULLISH. AT LEAST...CANT HANG YOUR HAT ON A SHORTWAVE OR SOME SORT OF MAIN LIFT PRODUCER DURING THAT TIME FRAME. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST THINKING THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH SNOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK BY A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE AWAY FROM NM DURING THE THURSDAY PERIOD. CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT THIS TIME AND MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TREND IN THE MODELS FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS COULD GET CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRANSLATES TO THE EAST OVER OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF NORTHERN WAVE DURING THE SATURDAY PERIOD BUT ECMWF ISNT REALLY BUYING INTO THAT. DIDNT TOUCH THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE. SIMILARLY FOR ANOTHER WAVE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 50 .AVIATION... LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NW NM. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE SOUTH AND EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE NW CORNER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND WILL MAINLY FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AT ITS ONSET. SNOW WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFMN AND KGUP ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. .FIRE WEATHER... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NW NM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME 30S IN THE SE AND TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN. INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE NW AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS MOSTLY SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN ALL RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NM INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE EAST SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. VENTILATION RATES WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING BEING POOR BUT WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN AND BEGIN TO BRIEFLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS INTO THE MID 40S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE PATTERN SETTING UP IS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE HAD LAST WEEK WHERE THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. INTO FRIDAY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S EAST AND THE TEENS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL START OFF THE DAY. PROGGED CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL USHER IN SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW PERSISTING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO WAVE SET TO CROSS THE NORTH. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL VARIANCE CONTINUES. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE SATURDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO FAR OUT TO TELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE... FARMINGTON...................... 30 43 25 41 / 10 60 30 10 DULCE........................... 20 38 17 36 / 30 70 60 20 CUBA............................ 22 41 19 39 / 20 50 50 10 GALLUP.......................... 28 39 19 38 / 20 80 30 10 EL MORRO........................ 24 39 18 35 / 10 80 40 5 GRANTS.......................... 31 43 17 40 / 10 60 40 5 QUEMADO......................... 26 43 19 40 / 10 50 50 0 GLENWOOD........................ 30 46 25 47 / 5 40 20 0 CHAMA........................... 14 35 14 34 / 30 80 60 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 41 21 40 / 10 40 40 5 PECOS........................... 24 43 20 38 / 10 20 30 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 14 40 15 38 / 10 30 50 20 RED RIVER....................... 13 33 13 31 / 10 40 70 20 ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 35 12 33 / 10 30 60 20 TAOS............................ 17 43 18 40 / 10 20 40 10 MORA............................ 20 42 21 37 / 0 20 30 0 ESPANOLA........................ 24 49 24 46 / 10 20 30 0 SANTA FE........................ 27 45 22 40 / 10 20 40 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 48 23 43 / 5 20 30 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 48 27 45 / 0 20 40 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 51 29 48 / 0 10 30 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 53 23 50 / 0 10 30 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 52 25 50 / 0 20 30 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 30 54 29 51 / 0 10 20 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 32 51 29 49 / 0 20 40 0 SOCORRO......................... 33 55 30 53 / 0 5 10 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 45 21 42 / 5 30 60 5 TIJERAS......................... 29 51 26 47 / 5 20 50 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 51 21 46 / 5 10 20 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 47 23 41 / 5 10 30 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 49 27 46 / 0 5 10 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 29 51 28 49 / 0 5 10 0 RUIDOSO......................... 29 45 27 42 / 0 5 20 0 CAPULIN......................... 19 50 21 41 / 0 5 20 10 RATON........................... 20 49 22 47 / 0 5 20 0 SPRINGER........................ 23 52 24 49 / 0 5 20 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 25 48 22 44 / 0 10 20 0 CLAYTON......................... 25 57 27 49 / 0 0 20 10 ROY............................. 27 53 27 49 / 0 5 20 0 CONCHAS......................... 30 60 32 55 / 0 5 10 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 30 59 30 53 / 0 0 10 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 27 63 31 55 / 0 0 5 0 CLOVIS.......................... 30 65 30 56 / 0 0 5 0 PORTALES........................ 30 67 31 58 / 0 0 5 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 30 65 31 59 / 0 0 5 0 ROSWELL......................... 33 69 36 63 / 0 0 5 0 PICACHO......................... 32 62 32 57 / 0 0 5 0 ELK............................. 31 55 31 50 / 0 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-510-511. &&
GUYER
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