AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 060855
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 255 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2008
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S STORM...A 
 TRANQUIL DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS 
 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT ALTERNATES BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST 
 PAC HIGH AND A HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR 
 SKIES AND MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE CLIMATE NORMS.
 
 LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN 
 WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN AN ENERGETIC 500 
 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DEEPENS. 
 THE DETAILS OF THIS CHANGE HAVE YET TO BECOME CLEAR AS 00 UTC 6 OCT 
 RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 
 THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE 500 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
 LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A 541H5 LOW IN EAST CENTRAL 
 NEVADA AT 12 UTC SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A 555H5 LOW OVER 
 WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.  THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY AND 
 PLACEMENT OF THIS 500 MB UPPER LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE NM 
 FORECAST.  AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...RESULTANT 
 SURFACE WINDS AND MOISTURE FIELDS ALSO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY.  
 
 SHOULD THE CURRENT GFS FORECAST VERIFY WE COULD EXPECT WINTER STORM 
 CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH COLDER AND WINDIER 
 CONDITIONS.  THE ECMWF FORECAST INDICATES WINTER STORMS CONDITIONS 
 FOR UTAH...WYOMING...IDAHO AND MONTANA...BUT NOT NEW MEXICO. NCEP 
 HPC IS ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THESE MODEL VARIANCES AND IS SUGGESTING 
 A 50/50 BLEND.  CURRENT ABQ GRIDS ARE TRENDING WITH THE GFS 
 FORECAST...INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING 
 LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH 
 INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A 
 COOLING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY 
 FORECAST CERTAINTY SHOULD IMPROVE AND FORECAST DETAILS CAN BE 
 REFINED TO BETTER DETERMINE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS...IF 
 ANY...OVER THE CWA.        
 
 BENNETT
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 UNTIL MID MORNING AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG 
 WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL 
 AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO 
 BE SPOTTIER IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 
 EARLY AFTERNOON....NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS 
 FROM 25 TO AROUND 35 KNOTS FROM RTN EASTWARD THROUGH CAO...INCLUDING 
 HARDING COUNTY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS 
 OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTHEAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON...VFR 
 CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AND SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL 
 BE POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 AS THE 
 STORM SYSTEM EXITS EAST. 
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. 44
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 
 TODAY...AND NORTH WINDS WILL BE WINDY NORTH OF TUCUMCARI TO RATON 
 AND CLAYTON...WHERE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE 
 UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK 
 IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
 TODAY. MINUMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BEGINNING 
 WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST AND THURSDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE 
 CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER WEATHER 
 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A POTENTIALLY 
 POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD USHER BREEZY TO WINDY 
 EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER 
 HUMIDITIES...AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE 
 AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
 
 44
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  68  41  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 
 GALLUP..........................  66  32  72  33 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRANTS..........................  68  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0 
 GLENWOOD........................  77  42  81  42 /   0   0   0   0 
 CHAMA...........................  63  29  67  30 /   5   0   0   0 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  63  37  67  38 /   5   0   0   0 
 RED RIVER.......................  57  28  61  27 /   5   0   0   0 
 TAOS............................  64  34  69  33 /  10   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE........................  66  40  69  40 /   5   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  67  41  70  41 /   5   0   0   0 
 ESPANOLA........................  72  37  74  37 /  10   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  49  74  50 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  73  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  43  72  44 /   5   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  74  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0 
 SOCORRO.........................  74  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  63  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  68  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  73  39  76  41 /   0   0   0   0 
 RUIDOSO.........................  64  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0 
 RATON...........................  67  35  70  34 /  10   0   0   0 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  65  36  69  41 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROY.............................  70  44  71  43 /   5   0   0   0 
 CLAYTON.........................  68  45  73  47 /  10   0   0   0 
 SANTA ROSA......................  77  41  78  42 /   0   0   0   0 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  74  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  77  47  77  46 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLOVIS..........................  75  46  76  50 /   0   0   0   0 
 PORTALES........................  78  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROSWELL.........................  79  51  79  51 /   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 01/44
 
 
 

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