AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 140519
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 1019 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012
 
 .UPDATE...
 LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING
 ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE STATE JUST BEFORE 18Z TUESDAY. A LOCALLY
 HEAVY BAND OF RAIN/SNOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE EAST TOWARD 
 CENTRAL NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE LOCAL 7.5KM WRF AND 5KM NCEP
 WRF-ARW THEN SHOW STRONG MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN MTS
 AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 21Z-06Z THEREFORE HAVE ADDED JEMEZ
 MTS TO WATCH. TWEAKED SNOW AMOUNTS UP IN THAT AREA AND ALSO RAISED
 AMOUNTS TO JUST BLW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES OF
 THE SANGRES. LOTS OF WINTER WX ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED LATER 
 TONIGHT FOR THE REGION SURROUNDING THE CURRENT WATCH.
 
 GUYER
 
 &&
 
 .PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MST MON FEB 13 2012...
 RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
 CENTRAL AREAS BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL
 BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE FOUND. GFS MUCH
 MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF THAN THE 12Z NAM. HAVE AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1 INCH
 PAINTED IN THE GRIDS. 
 
 ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND
 PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN
 TO SPREAD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN AREAS AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
 MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION
 EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MTNS...UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
 DIVIDE INTO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN BAND WOULD FORM LATE
 MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
 PROJECTED BY THE MODELS WITH THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO
 LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD BE IMPRESSIVE BUT NOT LAST VERY LONG
 DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A QUICK
 BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW/RAIN/SLEET WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
 AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH SOME LIGHTNING SO HAVE
 INCLUDED ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
 
 THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH DURING THE
 EVENING BUT RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
 WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE QPF THAN THE
 GFS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW.
 THERMAL ATTRIBUTES TO THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRICKY...PLENTY OF COLD
 AIR ALOFT BUT INITIALLY NOT AS MUCH AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE
 INITIAL QPF MAY VERY WELL FALL AS SNOW BUT NOT ACCUMULATE AS MUCH
 DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACE DUE TO WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A
 CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE THE ANTECEDENT SNOW THAT IS ALREADY ON THE
 GROUND AND KEEPING GROUND TEMPS A BIT COOLER. EITHER WAY...SOME
 OF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS SHOULD LINE UP WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
 ZONE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
 STORM DURATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU GO BY THE GFS...IS NOT ALL THAT
 IMPRESSIVE SO AFTER ADDING ALL OF THAT UP DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH
 FOR A HANDFUL OF ZONES.
 
 THE WATCH WILL RUN FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
 503...510...504 AND 506. CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH SNOW PROJECTED
 IN ZONE 506...4 INCHES...BUT EXPECT THE INITIAL SNOW BAND TO BE
 WET THEN MUCH COOLER AIR CREATING FREEZING ISSUES BEHIND THE
 FROPA. THUS...THE AREA BETWEEN GALLUP AND GRANTS...ESPECIALLY
 ALONG THE DIVIDE COULD CREATE ROUGH TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
 SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MANY ZONES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH ARE
 PROJECTED TO REACH SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
 ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WILL ALLOW UPCOMING SHIFTS ONE LAST LOOK
 AT THAT. WANTED TO GO WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITY AREAS FOR
 WARNING AMOUNTS AND/OR EFFECTS. LOOK FOR THAT STATEMENT BY 3 PM.
 
 DID CUT BACK A LITTLE ON POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 PERIOD AS NAM AND GFS NOT TOO BULLISH. AT LEAST...CANT HANG YOUR
 HAT ON A SHORTWAVE OR SOME SORT OF MAIN LIFT PRODUCER DURING THAT
 TIME FRAME. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST THINKING
 THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH SNOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK BY A FEW
 DEGREES.
 
 THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE A FAIR DISTANCE
 AWAY FROM NM DURING THE THURSDAY PERIOD. CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
 THIS SYSTEM DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AT THIS TIME AND
 MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL HAVE TO
 WATCH THE TREND IN THE MODELS FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD AS THERE IS A
 LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS COULD
 GET CLIPPED BY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRANSLATES TO THE EAST OVER OLD
 MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM. 
 
 BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE PICKING UP ON SOME SORT OF NORTHERN
 WAVE DURING THE SATURDAY PERIOD BUT ECMWF ISNT REALLY BUYING INTO
 THAT. DIDNT TOUCH THE EXTENDED GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
 THERE. SIMILARLY FOR ANOTHER WAVE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
 WEEK.
 
 50
 
 .AVIATION...
 LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NW NM. 
 THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THESE CLOUDS 
 ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE SOUTH AND EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION 
 IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE NW CORNER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
 TUESDAY AND WILL MAINLY FAVOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AT ITS ONSET. SNOW 
 WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN 
 AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS 
 TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFMN AND KGUP ASSOCIATED WITH 
 PRECIPITATION. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THRU TUESDAY 
 AFTERNOON.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN 
 FOCUS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS 
 EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA. 
 
 FOR TONIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR 
 WAY INTO NW NM. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S IN 
 MOST AREAS WITH SOME 30S IN THE SE AND TEENS IN THE NORTHERN 
 MOUNTAINS. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES 
 ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE. 
 CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.
 
 INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE NW 
 AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS 
 MOSTLY SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN ALL RAIN IN THE 
 LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS SOUTHERN 
 NM INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH 
 RANGE WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH 
 OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW 
 NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THE EAST 
 SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS 
 ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. 
 VENTILATION RATES WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING BEING POOR 
 BUT WILL IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 
 EVENING VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN MOST AREAS.   
 
 PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE 
 EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL FOLLOW THE 
 SAME PATTERN AND BEGIN TO BRIEFLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING 
 LOWS WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH 
 RECOVERIES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK 
 UP IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 
 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS INTO THE MID 40S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE 
 POOR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO VERY GOOD TO 
 EXCELLENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
 
 A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 
 DURING THIS TIME MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF OUR 
 NEXT SYSTEM. THE PATTERN SETTING UP IS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE 
 ONE WE HAD LAST WEEK WHERE THERE IS A CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A 
 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO 
 STAY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. 
 LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES 
 BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. INTO FRIDAY LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S EAST 
 AND THE TEENS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL START OFF 
 THE DAY. PROGGED CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL USHER IN SOME 
 MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW 
 PERSISTING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO WAVE SET TO CROSS THE 
 NORTH. 
 
 INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL VARIANCE CONTINUES. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK 
 BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE 
 SATURDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT 
 TIMING AND PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TO FAR 
 OUT TO TELL.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
 FARMINGTON......................  30  43  25  41 /  10  60  30  10 
 DULCE...........................  20  38  17  36 /  30  70  60  20 
 CUBA............................  22  41  19  39 /  20  50  50  10 
 GALLUP..........................  28  39  19  38 /  20  80  30  10 
 EL MORRO........................  24  39  18  35 /  10  80  40   5 
 GRANTS..........................  31  43  17  40 /  10  60  40   5 
 QUEMADO.........................  26  43  19  40 /  10  50  50   0 
 GLENWOOD........................  30  46  25  47 /   5  40  20   0 
 CHAMA...........................  14  35  14  34 /  30  80  60  20 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  25  41  21  40 /  10  40  40   5 
 PECOS...........................  24  43  20  38 /  10  20  30   0 
 CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  40  15  38 /  10  30  50  20 
 RED RIVER.......................  13  33  13  31 /  10  40  70  20 
 ANGEL FIRE......................  13  35  12  33 /  10  30  60  20 
 TAOS............................  17  43  18  40 /  10  20  40  10 
 MORA............................  20  42  21  37 /   0  20  30   0 
 ESPANOLA........................  24  49  24  46 /  10  20  30   0 
 SANTA FE........................  27  45  22  40 /  10  20  40   0 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  27  48  23  43 /   5  20  30   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  31  48  27  45 /   0  20  40   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  51  29  48 /   0  10  30   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  28  53  23  50 /   0  10  30   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  30  52  25  50 /   0  20  30   0 
 LOS LUNAS.......................  30  54  29  51 /   0  10  20   0 
 RIO RANCHO......................  32  51  29  49 /   0  20  40   0 
 SOCORRO.........................  33  55  30  53 /   0   5  10   0 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  23  45  21  42 /   5  30  60   5 
 TIJERAS.........................  29  51  26  47 /   5  20  50   5 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  51  21  46 /   5  10  20   0 
 CLINES CORNERS..................  27  47  23  41 /   5  10  30   0 
 GRAN QUIVIRA....................  29  49  27  46 /   0   5  10   0 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  29  51  28  49 /   0   5  10   0 
 RUIDOSO.........................  29  45  27  42 /   0   5  20   0 
 CAPULIN.........................  19  50  21  41 /   0   5  20  10 
 RATON...........................  20  49  22  47 /   0   5  20   0 
 SPRINGER........................  23  52  24  49 /   0   5  20   0 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  25  48  22  44 /   0  10  20   0 
 CLAYTON.........................  25  57  27  49 /   0   0  20  10 
 ROY.............................  27  53  27  49 /   0   5  20   0 
 CONCHAS.........................  30  60  32  55 /   0   5  10   0 
 SANTA ROSA......................  30  59  30  53 /   0   0  10   0 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  27  63  31  55 /   0   0   5   0 
 CLOVIS..........................  30  65  30  56 /   0   0   5   0 
 PORTALES........................  30  67  31  58 /   0   0   5   0 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  30  65  31  59 /   0   0   5   0 
 ROSWELL.........................  33  69  36  63 /   0   0   5   0 
 PICACHO.........................  32  62  32  57 /   0   0   5   0 
 ELK.............................  31  55  31  50 /   0   0  10   0 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MST TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT 
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-506-510-511.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 GUYER
 
 
 
 

Webmaster
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Tucson, AZ 85719

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