National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KABQ 242147 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 247 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 ...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY... .DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW DIES OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR MOST LOCALES TO WARM UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERCOME. MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE EASILY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY MID SLOPE AREAS THIS MORNING...SUCH AS THE ALBUQUERQUE SOUTH VALLEY STATION WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM OF 17 DEGREES VERSUS THE 27 DEGREE MINIMUM AT THE AIRPORT. TONIGHT/S READINGS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/S...AND HAVE GONE NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT WITH LITTLE MIXING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRUDE UPON THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL POSE LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING. OTHER AREAS WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A BROAD YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE BAJA...AND THIS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE BY LATE THURSDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ENSUING. FOR FRIDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA TRANSITIONS EASTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND WITH SOME INCREASE TO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HOLD FRIDAY WITH ALL EYES TURNING TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...NOW A 516 DAM LOW...WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS UPSTREAM SYSTEM...HAVE SIDED WITH HYDROMET PREDICTION CENTER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND FUTURE SHIFTS TOWARD A ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD CORE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN AZ AND NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NM LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EASTWARD BY MONDAY. MANY DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSES OFF AND TAKES A SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE. WINDS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH 12 TO 22 KNOTS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL THEN REACH TUCUMCARI AROUND MID DAY WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND LIGHTER GUSTS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY WEATHER AND POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION PERSISTS OVER NEW MEXICO. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND GRADUALLY ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCESS CROSSES NEW MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WARMING ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ACCEPT FOR A FEW GUSTS WITH EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE CURRENTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF IMPROVING VENTILATION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. WHILE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 14 47 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 11 51 12 54 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 15 51 14 54 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 8 50 9 56 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 13 51 13 56 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 7 53 9 57 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 15 55 14 58 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 26 64 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 7 49 8 53 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 20 51 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 18 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 10 48 9 54 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 6 42 8 48 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 46 7 49 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 9 50 8 54 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 17 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 17 51 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 18 51 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 22 53 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 52 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 16 53 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 24 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 19 55 20 59 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 18 52 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 10 53 14 55 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 18 52 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 27 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 19 53 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 12 45 14 57 / 0 5 0 0 RATON........................... 11 51 13 60 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 16 54 19 61 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 21 51 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 16 52 19 58 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 19 57 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 20 58 23 65 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 21 56 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 26 58 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 23 59 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 22 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 27 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 26 64 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 22 61 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
52/44
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