AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 242147
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 247 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 ...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...
 
 .DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
 AFTERNOON...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS NORTHWEST
 FLOW DIES OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. A CHILLY
 MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR MOST
 LOCALES TO WARM UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS
 WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERCOME. MANY VALLEY
 LOCATIONS WERE EASILY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY MID SLOPE
 AREAS THIS MORNING...SUCH AS THE ALBUQUERQUE SOUTH VALLEY STATION
 WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM OF 17 DEGREES VERSUS THE 27 DEGREE
 MINIMUM AT THE AIRPORT. TONIGHT/S READINGS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
 LAST NIGHT/S...AND HAVE GONE NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR MINIMUM
 TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
 EFFICIENT WITH LITTLE MIXING.
 
 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRUDE UPON THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
 WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL POSE LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER
 THAN A WIND SHIFT AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING. OTHER AREAS
 WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
 CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
 THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A BROAD
 YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE BAJA...AND THIS
 WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA
 WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TAKING
 SHAPE BY LATE THURSDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ENSUING.
 FOR FRIDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA TRANSITIONS
 EASTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND WITH SOME INCREASE TO CLOUD
 COVER EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. LEE SIDE
 TROUGH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN
 PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HOLD FRIDAY WITH ALL
 EYES TURNING TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN.
 
 FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
 GULF OF ALASKA...NOW A 516 DAM LOW...WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
 CONUS BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS
 UPSTREAM SYSTEM...HAVE SIDED WITH HYDROMET PREDICTION
 CENTER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND FUTURE SHIFTS TOWARD A ECMWF
 SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD CORE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR
 OF EASTERN AZ AND NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL
 ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
 FOR SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO
 EAST OVER NM LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
 TAPERING OFF EASTWARD BY MONDAY. MANY DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE
 WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
 ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSES
 OFF AND TAKES A SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL 
 OCCUR WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY 
 MORNING AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE. WINDS WITH THE 
 FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH 12 TO 22 KNOTS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL THEN 
 REACH TUCUMCARI AROUND MID DAY WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND LIGHTER 
 GUSTS.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 DRY WEATHER AND POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING 
 DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 
 STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION PERSISTS OVER NEW MEXICO. 
 MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MANY 
 AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES 
 WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND GRADUALLY ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH READINGS 
 WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK DOOR 
 COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A 
 WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE 
 LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCESS CROSSES NEW 
 MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WARMING ON THURSDAY. 
 ADDITIONALLY...WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ACCEPT FOR 
 A FEW GUSTS WITH EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE CURRENTS IN THE VICINITY OF 
 THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW NORTHERLY AND 
 NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN 
 THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.   
 
 FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS 
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW 
 SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS 
 OF IMPROVING VENTILATION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND 
 MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 
 
 WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN 
 UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. WHILE 
 FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY 
 COLDER AIR DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE 
 IS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT 
 SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO 
 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 
 
 44
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  14  47  18  53 /   0   0   0   0 
 DULCE...........................  11  51  12  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 CUBA............................  15  51  14  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 GALLUP..........................   8  50   9  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 EL MORRO........................  13  51  13  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRANTS..........................   7  53   9  57 /   0   0   0   0 
 QUEMADO.........................  15  55  14  58 /   0   0   0   0 
 GLENWOOD........................  26  64  28  65 /   0   0   0   0 
 CHAMA...........................   7  49   8  53 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  20  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 PECOS...........................  18  52  18  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 CERRO/QUESTA....................  10  48   9  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 RED RIVER.......................   6  42   8  48 /   0   0   0   0 
 ANGEL FIRE......................   7  46   7  49 /   0   0   0   0 
 TAOS............................   9  50   8  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 ESPANOLA........................  17  52  18  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE........................  17  51  18  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  53  25  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  26  52  28  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  18  52  21  55 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  53  23  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS LUNAS.......................  16  53  19  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 RIO RANCHO......................  24  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0 
 SOCORRO.........................  19  55  20  59 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  52  18  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  10  53  14  55 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLINES CORNERS..................  18  52  22  54 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  54  23  57 /   0   0   0   0 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  27  57  26  60 /   0   0   0   0 
 RUIDOSO.........................  19  53  22  56 /   0   0   0   0 
 CAPULIN.........................  12  45  14  57 /   0   5   0   0 
 RATON...........................  11  51  13  60 /   0   0   0   0 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  16  54  19  61 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLAYTON.........................  21  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROY.............................  16  52  19  58 /   0   0   0   0 
 CONCHAS.........................  19  57  22  64 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA ROSA......................  20  58  23  65 /   0   0   0   0 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  21  56  24  66 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLOVIS..........................  26  58  29  62 /   0   0   0   0 
 PORTALES........................  23  59  26  62 /   0   0   0   0 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  22  60  25  63 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROSWELL.........................  27  62  26  64 /   0   0   0   0 
 PICACHO.........................  26  64  26  65 /   0   0   0   0 
 ELK.............................  22  61  24  61 /   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

 
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