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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona L3MTO page

HOME

Southeast Arizona

Local 3-month temperature outlooks (L3MTO)

Summer 2008 (June thru August)

The Climate Prediction Center Summer 2008 temperature outlook for all of southeast Arizona calls for elevated chances of above normal temperatures.

But what does this mean for individual locations? What has been the temperature trend over the past 10 years?

Fall 2008 outlook coming in August.

The full suite of 3-month temperature outlooks for southeast Arizona are available at the following URL: http://www.weather.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=twc

This page will give a summary of the Summer 2008 forecast for selected sites across southeast Arizona along with past data to compare the with current forecast. Select a site below:

Pie chart HELP!

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Tucson, Arizona

There is a greater (73.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 83.9 Deg F, and a lesser (27.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	86.9	2002	86.9
2006	86.8	2001	85.9
2005	86.7	2000	85.9
2004	85.5	1999	84.3
2003	87.1	1998	84.9

10 year average = 86.1 F

1971-2000 normal = 85.2 F

Tucson has recorded eight straight Summer seasons of above normal temperatures. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will continue the streak.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Douglas, Arizona

There is a greater (68.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 77.5 Deg F, and a lesser (32.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	79.5	2002	80.3
2006	79.4	2001	78.4
2005	79.5	2000	79.1
2004	78.6	1999	77.2
2003	80.9	1998	78.8

10 year average = 79.2 F

1971-2000 normal = 77.8 F

Douglas has recorded eight straight Summer seasons of above normal temperatures. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will continue the streak.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Safford, Arizona

There is a greater (65.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 80.9 Deg F, and a lesser (35.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	83.3	2002	83.5
2006	82.6	2001	82.3
2005	82.0	2000	83.3
2004	80.1	1999	80.8
2003	83.8	1998	81.9

10 year average = 82.3 F

1971-2000 normal = 81.3 F

Seven of the past eight summers in Safford have been above normal. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks pretty certain that Summer 2008 will be above normal again.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Willcox, Arizona

There is a greater (66.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 76.1 Deg F, and a lesser (34.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	80.3	2002	79.9
2006	M	2001	78.7
2005	79.2	2000	79.4
2004	77.5	1999	76.9
2003	81.2	1998	78.2

9 year average = 79.0 F

1971-2000 normal = 77.6 F

Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will be warm again in Willcox.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Nogales, Arizona

There is a greater (65.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 76.6 Deg F, and a lesser (35.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	78.7	2002	78.5
2006	79.0	2001	78.0
2005	78.9	2000	78.5
2004	76.4	1999	77.3
2003	78.6	1998	77.2

10 year average = 78.1 F

1971-2000 normal = 77.2 F

Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will be warm again in Nogales.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Oracle, Arizona

There is a greater (66.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 77.4 Deg F, and a lesser (34.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	80.1	2002	80.2
2006	78.9	2001	78.3
2005	79.1	2000	79.2
2004	78.0	1999	76.5
2003	79.0	1998	78.2

10 year average = 78.6 F

1971-2000 normal = 78.3 F

Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will be warm again in Oracle.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Clifton, Arizona

There is a greater (61.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 85.6 Deg F, and a lesser (39.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	88.7	2002	86.0
2006	87.1	2001	82.5
2005	86.7	2000	85.3
2004	85.0	1999	81.9
2003	87.6	1998	M

9 year average = 85.6 F

1971-2000 normal = 83.0 F

Clifton has recorded six straight above normal summer seasons. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will be above normal again.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Arizona

There is a greater (63.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 86.2 Deg F, and a lesser (37.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	87.1	2002	87.4
2006	87.7	2001	87.8
2005	86.7	2000	88.2
2004	85.8	1999	86.3
2003	87.3	1998	87.5

10 year average = 87.2 F

1971-2000 normal = 86.9 F

8 of the past 10 summers at Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument have been above normal. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will be above normal.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

Summer 2008 temperature outlook for

Kitt Peak, Arizona

There is a greater (50.0%) chance that the temperature will be higher than the climatological median* of 70.4 Deg F, and a lesser (50.0%) chance that the temperature will be lower than the climatological median*.

Average Summer temperatures since 1998

2007	71.0	2002	72.3
2006	69.7	2001	69.5
2005	70.5	2000	70.8
2004	69.6	1999	68.5
2003	70.8	1998	69.4

10 year average = 70.2 F

1971-2000 normal = 69.7 F

Kitt Peak has had at or slightly above normal summertime temperatures over the past 10 years. Based on the CPC forecast, it looks like Summer 2008 will continue that trend.

Early Fall 2008 outlook (as of May 16th): Enhanced probabilities of above normal.

*For the climatological reference information, the median statistic is reported. The median value means that during the present climatological reference period (1971-2000), half of the years (50%) temperature was greater than the median and in the other half (50%) less than that.

Future climatological season outlook issuance's:

Fall 2008 (September through November) - Late August
Winter 2008-09 (December through February) - Late November
Spring 2009 (March through May) - Late February

Additional sites across Arizona can be found on NWS Phoenix website and NWS Flagstaff website.

A detailed Users Guide is also available which describes L3MTO.

If you need more information on this product, send an e-mail to the webmaster.

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Tucson, AZ 85719

Tel: (520) 670-6526

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