AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KBOI 250359
 AFDBOI
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
 859 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...DRY AND TRANQUIL NIGHT UNDERWAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER
 TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT WILL
 TAKE A LOOK AT 9 PM MST OBS BEFORE COMPLETING A FINAL ANALYSIS. IF
 NECESSARY...UPDATE WILL BE OUT AROUND 930 PM MST. UPDATE WILL
 ONLY CONSIST OF CHANGES IN MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...AND ONLY
 BETWEEN BAKER AND MCCALL AND NORTH OF ONTARIO.
 
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 .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS. ANY 
 LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO AROUND 
 KONO...KBKE AND KMYL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED 
 WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND.
 
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 .PREV DISCUSSION...
 SHORT TERM...INVERSION DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF OUR CWA AS 
 SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST.  VALLEY MIN AND MAX 
 TEMPS WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE HIGHER SLOPES 
 GRADUALLY WARM.  LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MINIMIZE FOG AND 
 STRATUS BUT HAZE WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  
 THE CAMAS PRAIRIE...INCLUDING FAIRFIELD...WILL CONTINUE MUCH COLDER 
 THAN ANYWHERE ELSE.  THAT AREA HAD SUBZERO TEMPS THIS MORNING AND 
 ONLY TEENS THROUGH 20Z AND WE SEE LITTLE REASON FOR CHANGE NEXT TWO 
 DAYS.  WRN MAGIC VALLEY MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGS THURSDAY 
 AS INVERSION SHALLOWS...BUT THE TREASURE AND MALHEUR VALLEYS SHOULD 
 STAY COOL/COLD.  LIGHT WINDS...NO PCPN.
 
 LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE 
 WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY WITH VALLEY RAIN 
 AND MTN SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH BAND OF HIGHER PW GETTING 
 CUT OFF AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE. WILL SEE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL 
 WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODEL 
 DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY TO REBUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. 
 STILL CHANCE OF A SECONDARY WAVE BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE 
 FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS OVER THE WEST 
 CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS WHERE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERLAP. 
 MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON EXTENDED PERIOD.
 
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 .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 ID...NONE.
 OR...NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
 
 DISCUSSION...SP
 AVIATION.....CR
 PREV SHORT TERM...LC
 PREV LONG TERM....DG/BB