FXUS66 KLOX 232355 AAA 
  AFDLOX 
   
  SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
This National Weather Service
product is intended to provide a
well-reasoned discussion of the
meteorological thinking which went
into the preparation of the Zone
Forecast Product. The forecaster
will try to focus on the most
particular challenges of the
forecast. The text will be written
in plain language or in proper
contractions. At the end of the
discussion, there will be a list of
all advisor...
Click for More......UPDATED 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
An agency of the Federal Government
within the Department of Commerce,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Click for More... LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CACA
California
Click for More... 
  354 PM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
Click for More... MON NOV 23 2009 
   
  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... 
   
  .SYNOPSIS... 
   
  GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES IN THE  
  AFTERNOONS TO WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THURSDAY. A  
  COLD FRONTCOLD FRONT
A zone separating two air masses,
of which the cooler, denser mass is
advancing and replacing the warmer.
Click for More... WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND WILL SHARPLY DROP THE  
  TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY...AND  
  WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY CLEARMOSTLY CLEAR
When the predominant/average sky
condition is covered 1/8 to 2/8
with opaque (not transparent)
clouds. Sometimes referred to as
Mostly Sunny if this condition is
present during daylight hours.
Click for More... SKIES AND A  
  WARMING TREND. 
   
  && 
   
  .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IS THE DEVELOPING  
  SANTA ANA ACROSS SOUTHERN CAL AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND GUSTS...  
  WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE  
  OFFSHORE WINDS KICKED IN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED TODAY AND  
  TEMPERATURES HAVE ZOOMED ABOVE FORECASTS AS A RESULT. PRESSURE  
  GRADIENTS OF -5.0MB LAX-DAG AND -10.6MB LAX-TPH CONTRIBUTED TO THE  
  INCREASED OFFSHORE WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE  
  SANTA CLARA RIVER VALLEY AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS... AND ACROSS CANYON  
  COUNTRY TOWARD THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE  
  BEEN COMMON WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER 60 MPH AT WILEY RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More......OUR  
  NOTORIOUSLY WINDY SPOT. WRFWRF
Weather Research and Forecasting
Model - A mesoscale numerical model
of the atmosphere run four times
daily by NCEP. Currently, the NAM
(North Anerican Mesoscale Model)
and the WRF are the same.
Click for More... MODEL LOW-LEVEL WINDS (AROUND 2K FT)  
  INCREASE TO NEARLY 40KT JUST AFTER DARK ACROSS VENTURA COUNTY AND  
  REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT WINDS TO  
  BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES  
  COUNTIES TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE ALL WIND ADVISORIES AND COASTAL  
  AREAS SHOULD RAMP UP INTO THIS CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS PLANNED.  
  MINIMUM TEMPERATUREMINIMUM TEMPERATURE
This is the lowest temperature
recorded during a specified period
of time. The time period can be 6,
12 or 24 hours. The most common
reference is to the daily minimum
temperature, or "low."
Click for More... FORECASTS ARE CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT THREE  
  NIGHTS AND WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON WIND-SHELTERING AND COULD MAKE FOR  
  LARGE SPREADS IN SHORT DISTANCES.  
   
  WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN BY LATE MORNING OR  
  EARLY AFTERNOON...SO WILL LET ADVISORIES RIDE UNTIL THIS TIME FRAME  
  ON TUESDAY. IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES WILL  
  BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE  
  RAMPED UP TEMPERATURES IN THE WINDIER LOCATIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING  
  DAY. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE RECORDS ARE REACHABLE...BUT READINGS WILL  
  PUSH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE WARMEST DAYS OF WEDNESDAY AND  
  THURSDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A  
  WEAK ONSHORE SEABREEZE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THERE  
  IS STILL A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO  
  THE PERSISTENT SANTA ANA CONDITIONS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...POOR  
  HUMIDITYHUMIDITY
Generally, a measure of the water
vapor content of the air.
Popularly, it is used synonymously
with relative humidity.
Click for More... LEVELS AND DRYING FUELS. A STRONGER SANTA ANA EVENT WOULD  
  TIP THE SCALES TOWARD FIRE WEATHER WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.  
   
  .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY NOW WITH A LOW PRESPRES
Pressure
Click for More...  
  TROUGHTROUGH
An elongated area of relatively low
atmospheric pressure, usually not
associated with a closed
circulation, and thus used to
distinguish from a closed low. The
opposite of ridge.
Click for More... MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
  A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES COOLER WITH DECENT HUMIDITYHUMIDITY
Generally, a measure of the water
vapor content of the air.
Popularly, it is used synonymously
with relative humidity.
Click for More... RECOVERY AS  
  NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS DRY AND WILL  
  BLOW OUT ANY LOW CLOUDSLOW CLOUDS
Usually refers to stratus clouds.

Click for More... ALONG THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A REPEAT OF  
  UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A  
  FEW SPRINKLES BEHIND THE STORMSTORM
Any disturbed state of the
atmosphere, especially affecting
the Earth's surface, and strongly
implying destructive and otherwise
unpleasant weather. Storms range in
scale from tornadoes and
thunderstorms to tropical cyclones
to synoptic-scale extratropical
cyclones.
Click for More... SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE  
  RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ON  
  SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASINBASIN
An area having a common outlet for
its surface runoff. Also called a
"Drainage Basin."
Click for More... TURNING OUR  
  WINDS BACK TO OFFSHORE. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO SO  
  HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYS 6-7. WE  
  COULD ALSO BE LOOKING AT A STRONGER SANTA ANA WINDSANTA ANA WIND
In southern California, a weather
condition in which strong, hot,
dust-bearing winds descend to the
Pacific Coast around Los Angeles
from inland desert regions.
Click for More... EVENT BY SUNDAY  
  NIGHT-MONDAY.  
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION...23/2354Z. 
  VFRVFR
Visual Flight Rules - Usually
denotes clear skies or ceilings
greater than 3000 ft and
visibilities greater than 6 statute
miles.
Click for More... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A  
  CHANCE OF LIFRLIFR
Low Instrument Flight Rules -
usually refers to ceilings less
than 200 feet and/or visibilities
less than one hile of a statute
mile.
Click for More... TO IFRIFR
Instrument Flight Rules - Usually
denotes when ceilings are between
500 and 1000 ft and/or visibilities
are between 1 and 3 statute miles.
Click for More... CONDITIONS AT KPRB BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z TUESDAY  
  MORNING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND  
  SHEARSHEAR
Variation in wind speed (speed
shear) and/or direction
(directional shear) over a short
distance within the atmosphere.
Shear usually refers to vertical
wind shear, i.e., the change in
wind with height, but the term also
is used in Doppler radar to
describe changes in radial velocity
over short horizontal distances.
Click for More... WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT KOXR...KBUR...AND KVNY. 
   
  KLAX...VFRVFR
Visual Flight Rules - Usually
denotes clear skies or ceilings
greater than 3000 ft and
visibilities greater than 6 statute
miles.
Click for More... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ANY  
  OFFSHORE WINDS LIKELY REMAINING 10 KTKT
(Knot)- Unit of speed used in
navigation, equal to 1 nautical
mile (the length of 1 minute
latitude) per hour or about 1.15
statue miles per hour, or 0.5
meters/sec).
Click for More... OR LESS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT  
  CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER THAN 10 KTKT
(Knot)- Unit of speed used in
navigation, equal to 1 nautical
mile (the length of 1 minute
latitude) per hour or about 1.15
statue miles per hour, or 0.5
meters/sec).
Click for More... BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z  
  TUESDAY. 
   
  KBUR...VFRVFR
Visual Flight Rules - Usually
denotes clear skies or ceilings
greater than 3000 ft and
visibilities greater than 6 statute
miles.
Click for More... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. PERIODS OF  
  MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEARWIND SHEAR
The rate at which wind velocity
changes from point to point in a
given direction (as, vertically).
The shear can be speed shear (where
speed changes between the two
points, but not direction),
direction shear (where direction
changes between the two points, but
not speed) or a combination of the
two.
Click for More... ARE EXPECTED  
  THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z TUESDAY. THEN...WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN. 
   
  && 
   
  .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
  WIND ADVISORYWIND ADVISORY
Sustained winds 30 mph and greater
or frequent wind gusts 35 mph or
greater. These thresholds are
slightly higher for desert and
mountain areas.
Click for More... (SEE LAXNPWLOX). 
   
  && 
   
  
 
   
  PUBLIC...BOLDT 
  AVIATION...HALL 
  SYNOPSIS...SETO 
   
  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES