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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KREV 242234
 AFDREV
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
 234 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SHORT TERM...
 
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
 HELPING TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE
 IS PRODUCING WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SLOWER WARMING IN LOWER
 ELEVATIONS DUE TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
 STRENGTHEN INVERSIONS AND HINDER TEMPERATURES RECOVERIES AGAIN ON
 WEDNESDAY. 
 
 THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL EJECT A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE WEST
 COAST ON THURSDAY...MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA THU NIGHT AND
 THROUGH WESTERN NV WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRI AND FRI
 NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING THIS SHORT WAVE WITH THE GFS
 FASTER AND WEAKER AND THE ECMWF SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE NAM IS
 SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE WITH SLOWER TIMING PER EC AND WEAKER PER
 GFS. NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY A
 FEW HUNDREDTHS INCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV THU
 NGT THROUGH FRI.
 
 WINDS BECOME GUSTY THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING
 SHORT WAVE. TIMING SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
 RUNS AS 40 KNOT H7 FLOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL THU EVENING. RIDGE WINDS
 WILL GUST TO 60 MPH IN THE LAKE TAHOE AREA THU NIGHT...A LITTLE
 LESS OVER MONO COUNTY RIDGES. 
 
 DUE TO TIMING INCONSISTENCIES IN TODAY`S MODELS...CURRENT HIGH
 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS NEAR 60 FOR SOME VALLEYS IN EXTREME
 WESTERN NV ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE CONTINUED. IF THE WINDS
 ALOFT DO INDEED DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST...HERE WILL BE
 LESS MIXING AND HIGHS FOR THANKSGIVING MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID
 50S...OR THE DAYTIME HIGH WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY. EITHER
 WAY...THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME OF
 YEAR. RC
 
 .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
 
 AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL 
 BRING SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN STATES. EC BRINGS IN A 
 SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW 
 SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
 
 A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN SAT-SUN. COLD 
 NORTH TO EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN OUR AREA...WILL KEEP 
 TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BUILDING 
 OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN HOW COLD WE GET AND HOW 
 LONG. MODELS LOOK TO BE TRENDING THE RIDGE INTO THE WEST COAST 
 FASTER...WITH TEMPERATURES COMING UP BY MONDAY. ON THE OTHER 
 HAND...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHICH 
 WOULD MEAN STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW.
 
 DIDN`T REALLY MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT 
 RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES SUN-TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR RIDGE BUILDING 
 IN FASTER AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY AND COOL SEEMS TO BE THE NORM 
 THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  HOON
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 
 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WITH LIGHT WINDS 
 AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOG POSSIBLE AT TRUCKEE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...BUT 
 DRY AIR MAY KEEP THE FOG SHALLOW. 
 
 NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL TO START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. 
 SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
 FRIDAY...SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW 
 SHOWERS NORTH OF KTVL-KRNO-KNFL.  HOON
 
 &&
 
 .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NV...NONE.
 CA...NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
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